That 1-4 finish would give them a best-case NFC record of 7-5, matching that of the Packers. Should they fall behind the Seahawks for the division title and drop back into the Wild Card race at 9-8, the Packers would hold the two-way tiebreaker. Here’s where tiebreakers start to come into play. That would require a 1-4 finish from San Francisco or a 2-3 stretch from Seattle to pull the teams even on their records.
Things look good for a 9-8 Packers team in a two-way tiebreaker with either of these two teams, however. But if Green Bay can only get clear of one of those two, they must pass up either the 8-4 49ers or the 7-5 Seahawks as well. If the Packers can pass up both of the Giants and Commanders, they won’t need help from an NFC West team. But the more plausible scenario for Packers fans to pull for is for the loser of Giants-Commanders to lose two of their final three games. The ideal situation is that the only win from these two teams combined comes in that head-to-head matchup. The Commanders then finish with the 49ers, Browns, and Cowboys, also facing two possible division winners. The Giants play at Minnesota, at home against the Colts, and at the Eagles if they lose in weeks 14/15, they could very feasibly lose to the Vikings and Eagles and get to that 8-8-1 mark. The Packers’ best hope then is for the loser of that game to keep on losing, and both of these teams do have tough slates over the final three games.
If that happens, a 1-3 finish from either of these two gets that team to 8-8-1 and the Packers pass them up at 9-8.īut again, here’s the problem: these two teams play again in week 15, and someone is going to get a win in that game, barring a ludicrous second tie. The Packers would love to see the Eagles beat the Giants this week, which appears likely. That would mean the Giants going no better than 1-4 down the stretch or the Commanders going 1-3 in their last four games after their week 14 bye. In other words, a loss for either team last week would have been more helpful than the tie for both.īut what’s done is done, and now the head-to-head tiebreakers won’t enter into the equation: the Packers just need one or both of those two teams to finish 8-8-1 (or worse). The tie increased the Packers’ chances of overcoming both, but only by a tiny amount, while decreasing the likelihood that the Packers could pass one or the other. Here’s the problem: Green Bay needs to jump one or both of these two teams in the standings. Behind them are the New York Giants (7-4-1) and Washington Commanders (7-5-1), who tied a week ago, a result that actually did hurt the Packers. The 11-1 Eagles look like they’ll coast to a division title, with the Dallas Cowboys in the driver’s seat for the top Wild Card spot at 9-3. The NFC East could end up putting four teams in the playoffs this year. Here’s a look at what they’ll need to do just that. Obviously, the Packers need to make up some serious ground, passing up at least three teams ahead of them to get into the seventh seed. Here’s a look at the NFC playoff standings as it currently sits: With that in mind, let’s assume Green Bay wins out - what other help will they need? Current Playoff Picture Fall to 8-9 and that wiggle room reverts to essentially zero.
There’s still a little bit of wiggle room at 9-8, though it’s exceedingly slim. Keep those numbers in mind, as they’ll be important in a bit for tiebreaker purposes. Instead, sweeping the final four games of the season sends the Packers to 9-8 overall, with a 4-2 division record by virtue of victories over the Vikings and Lions in weeks 17 and 18 and a 7-5 record in NFC games. Technically, one more loss down the stretch - either to the Rams a week from Monday or to the Dolphins on Christmas Day - would not eliminate Green Bay on its own, but it would drop playoff odds to well below one percent (per 538) and the team would need basically every single following result to go their way. First of all: win outīefore we worry about other teams, of course, the Packers need to win out. Here, we’ll break down what Green Bay needs to do in order to catch each of the teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race and what combinations of circumstances would result in a playoff berth for the Green and Gold. But just what scenarios could result in Green Bay getting in? After all, it’s worth knowing what to root for during the Packers’ bye and over the the final five weeks overall. Depending on which projections you look at, the team has anywhere from a 4% chance of earning an NFC Wild Card spot ( 538) to 11% odds ( via The Athletic). Let’s face it: the Green Bay Packers’ postseason dreams are on life support.
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